Enrollment at K-12 districts in the region keeps dropping — loss of 10% in Central Square, 11% in Syracuse, 10% in Pulaski — while the cost to operate continues to rise
By Aaron Gifford
Declining enrollment in public K-12 districts across the nation, including those in Central New York, is pushing schools toward a fiscal cliff.
Fewer students mean less state and federal aid. And yet, spending and hiring at local schools continue to increase despite enrollment drops, according to data from the National Center of Education Statistics and the Edunomics Lab at Georgetown University.
Oswego County’s largest district, Central Square, decreased by 316 students, or 8% of its enrollment, since 2018. It added three employees during that time span.
In Sandy Creek, Oswego County’s smallest district, both enrollment and staffing levels decreased, with 48 fewer students this academic year and 47 fewer employees.
Altmar-Parish-Williamstown Central School District added 52 paraprofessionals (teacher aides or instructional assistants) and nine administrative and central office employees over the past seven years, even though its enrollment decreased by 148 students or 12%. Likewise, Pulaski Central’s enrollment decreased by 10% to 950 students while that district added five paraprofessionals and five administrative positions.
Most school districts in Onondaga, Madison and Cayuga counties reported similar trends, according to data on the Edunomics Lab website.
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s proposed 2027 budget provides only a 1% state foundation aid increase to districts. School leaders say that’s not nearly enough to keep up with inflation and skyrocketing medical insurance costs for public school employees.
K-12 districts across the nation used federal pandemic relief money to add administrators and paraprofessionals. Now that the grant program is exhausted, school leaders grapple with the decision of either laying off employees or increasing tax levies.
“Many districts hired counselors, tutors — there was a need before the pandemic and the aid made it possible,” said Dave Albert, chief communications officer for the New York State School Boards Association. “That need doesn’t necessarily go away, but right now districts are dealing with some difficult decisions.”
Syracuse City schools, the largest Central New York District, added 713 employees in the past seven years while enrollment declined by 2,244 students or 11%. Leaders there navigated a $7 million budget gap.
Superintendent Pamela Odom said more state and federal aid is needed to help cover increasing special education costs.
“Reasonably, this is the year to update the formula to ensure that state funds will be allocated to students who need it most, as the federal stimulus funds have expired,” she said in a budget update on the district website. “Syracuse City School District students are on the rise to academic recovery and success.”
Liverpool Central, another large district in Onondaga County, has a multi-million-dollar deficit that could require the elimination of 78 jobs, 41 of them through layoffs.
Superintendent Richard Chapman said inflation and increased employee health insurance costs drive up spending at a time when state and federal aid remains uncertain, considering the enrollment decline.
“We are doing more with less — there’s no two ways about it,” he said during an April 6 board of education meeting.
Liverpool’s enrollment decreased from 7,142 students in 2018 to 6,728 or 6% at the start of this academic year. That district reduced its payroll by 46 employees in that timeframe.
The Fulton City School District, with a $5 million budget gap, plans to eliminate 54 full-time positions through a combination of attrition and layoffs, according to budget documents on the district website.
Enrollment in that district has decreased by 193 students in the past seven years.
“This budget focuses on maintaining strong educational programs, safe and supportive learning environments and responsible financial planning,” a public statement on the district website says.
Similarly, the Jamesville-DeWitt district’s $5 million budget gap required district leaders to cut 35 positions, 11 through layoffs. The district applied $2.5 million from its fund balance to avoid deeper cuts.
“Our team worked hard to find more efficient ways to operate without changing the student experience,” J-D superintendent Darcy Woodcock said in a statement on the district website. “From sports and clubs to school safety, this budget keeps our students as the top priority.”
J-D’s enrollment has decreased by 278 students or 10% since 2018. It has added six administrative employees since then, but still eliminated 25 full-time positions across the district.
In Madison County, school leaders in the Cazenovia and Morrisville-Eaton districts are considering a merger. Enrollment in both districts has decreased by 48 students since 2018. During that time frame, Cazenovia eliminated 22 teaching positions and M-E cut seven, but Cazenovia also added 17 paraprofessionals and M-E hired an additional administrator.
While school closures in Upstate New York are still somewhat rare, there are some recent examples in local districts. Oneida City Schools, which reported a 13% enrollment decline to 1,742 students, closed an elementary school ahead of the 2024-25 academic year and one back in 2011.
Chittenango, Madison County’s largest district, closed an elementary school in 2015. That district’s enrollment decreased by 36 students between 2018 and 2025.
In the North Syracuse District, Onondaga County, leaders are considering the closure of one elementary school. In the Oswego City School District, leaders spent several years researching the closure of Frederick Leighton Elementary School but ultimately decided against it in 2022.
Across New York state, 43 school buildings closed between 2021 and 2024 — a relatively low number considering the significant enrollment declines, according to a recent report from the Reason Foundation policy center.
“Many school districts delayed closure, relying on federal COVID-19 relief funds to keep their under-enrolled schools afloat,” the report said.
Closing neighborhood schools typically meets with taxpayer opposition. Mergers, which can also be a major cost-saving measure, rarely get much public support.
Albert, the New York State School Boards Association official, said other than Cazenovia and M-E, he is aware of only two other districts in Upstate New York that are currently considering a merger.
“Most mergers fail,” he said. “Communities usually vote them down, but that might not always be the case.”
Still, Albert said, schools can save money through a limited number of shared services between individual districts or through multi-district arrangements with county-level Board of Cooperative Educational Services (BOCES). This can include shared superintendents, transportation, food service, advanced placement courses and dual enrollment programs with local community colleges.
“Those are ideas worth exploring,” he said. “The opportunities are there.”
Nationally, public K-12 enrollment decreased by about 900,500 students in the past decade, while staffing during the same time period increased by about 700,000 or 11.9%, according to the Edunomics Lab.
According to the Empire Center, a nonprofit policy organization, New York state spends more than $30,000 per public school student, more than any other state and about double the U.S. average.
Nationally, K-12 enrollment has decreased by 1.18 million students or 2.3%, according to the Education Commission of the States. The commission also reported that enrollment is expected to decrease by an additional 2.7 million students by 2031.
“The projected declines are not exclusive to a few pockets of the country,” the commission’s report said, noting that 40 states expect to have fewer students in 2030.
Declining birth rates are the main driver of this trend -690,000 fewer children were born in 2024 compared to 2007. But there are additional factors: There’s been a sharp increase in homeschooling and universal school choice, especially for public charters and private schools, has made giant strides in several regions of the country in recent years.
The commission urges states not to decrease aid to districts because of decreasing enrollment. It also encourages states to establish stabilization funds for financially distressed schools and challenges district leaders to pool resources for special education, career and technical education and information technology services.
“Fewer enrolled students may lead to financial challenges for school districts in the near term, but with effective state leadership, it can also be an opportunity for increased cooperation and new learning models,” the report said.
